FC: TradeSports.com bettors think Saddam will be alive past 3/31

[Declan McCullagh <declan@well.com>]

Previous Politech message:
"TradeSports.com lets you bet on Saddam's survivability"
http://www.politechbot.com/p-04538.html

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Date: Wed, 26 Mar 2003 22:48:16 -0800
To: Declan McCullagh <declan@well.com>
From: Richard Pauli <rpauli@speakeasy.net>
Subject: Interpreting sudden price drop in Saddam's demise contracts
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Declan -

This may be of interest to Politech subscribers...

A sudden price drop seen in the market for predictions on Saddam's date of 
demise - might indicate gamblers suddenly think he may make it past March 31st.

The Web trading/gambling on the future of Saddam has taken a big drop 
recently.  Check http://www.tradesports.com/ where you can gamble/trade on 
all kinds of future events (mostly sports).

If you click on IRAQ.SADDAM.MAR03 you can see a chart on the history of how 
money has been invested on whether "Saddam Hussein is not President/Leader 
of Iraq by 31st March 2003".   In the last few days the graph there shows a 
sharp decline in the percentage chance that he will be gone soon - from up 
in the 70's to around the teens now. Market saying he is way less likely to 
be gone by then. These are like day traders, buying and selling for the 
changes in the price of the contract.  Saddam contracts now go out to the 
end of June even. Their numbers change by the minute, if you want to note 
such things.

Dig around and you can trade on the colors red, orange, yellow, blue and 
green for "Security Alert Level March 2003" - which has not moved as much 
recently.

Another 
article:  http://www.who2beton.com/articles/tradesports/tradesports-saddam.php

Richard Pauli
Seattle, WA




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